Forecasting of national economy

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Across
  1. 6. Real-time prediction for short-term tactical decision-making, emphasizing timeliness and model simplicity
  2. 8. It expresses the relationship between money holdings (M/P) and real income (Y), interest rate (i) and other variables, and is used to analyze the regulatory effect of monetary policy on liquidity
  3. 9. Is a method of scientific foresight, which uses both past experience and current assumptions about the future in order to determine it
  4. 11. More than 30 years, quality changes
  5. 12. Measures the impact multiple of changes in exports on national income, reflecting the leverage effect of trade in an open economy
  6. 14. Quantify the supply and demand relationship between sectors through the industrial correlation table, predict the impact of structural policies on the industrial chain, and emphasize the multiplier effect and bottleneck analysis
  7. 15. Usually 10-30 years, there are quantitative and quality changes with the dominance of quality ones
  8. 16. Usually 1-2 years, there are quantitative changes
Down
  1. 1. The confidence range of the prediction results given based on the probability distribution reflects the potential range of the prediction error
  2. 2. Based on the optimization behavior of micro-subjects (such as maximizing household utility and maximizing corporate profits), a multi-market simultaneous equation system is constructed to simulate the dynamic response path of the economy to shocks
  3. 3. A forecasting tool based on economic theory and statistical techniques that uses mathematical equations to describe the relationship between variables
  4. 4. A mathematical model that describes the relationship between input (capital K, labor L, technology A) and output (Y), used to predict total factor productivity and the contribution of technological progress
  5. 5. A forecasting system consisting of leading indicators, coincident indicators and lagging indicators is used to determine economic turning points
  6. 7. Usually 5-7 years, there are quantitative and quality changes
  7. 10. Is the science of making predictions based on principles, methods and instruments of scientific forecasting
  8. 13. It is the logical starting point of economic models or predictive analysis, and refers to the researcher's theoretical setting of the relationship between economic variables or economic mechanisms